Own and others’ perceived drinking among freshmen as predictors of alcohol consumption over 10 years.

The alcohol use perceptions young people have of those close to them can affect their expectations regarding alcohol and, thus, their own drinking. We aim to identify the predictive ability of own and significant others’ perceived drinking at age 18-19 in the alcohol use patterns at 27-28. A cohort study was carried out among university students in Spain (n=1,382). Binge Drinking (BD) and Risky Consumption (RC) were measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test at ages 18, 20, 22, 24 and 27. Multilevel logistic regression for repeated measures was used to calculate the adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs). College students perceive their family’s alcohol consumption as very low or nothing, while the perception of their own alcohol use or that of their friends is higher. Perceiving higher alcohol use among their siblings and friends increases the risk of BD for both sexes and RC for women. Living away from the parental home increases the risk of RC and BD. In conclusion, the perception of their friend’s alcohol use at age 18-19 is the most influential variable in BD among both sexes and in RC among men throughout 10 years of follow-up. Parental alcohol consumption does not affect college student drinking patterns when friends and siblings are considered. Living with one’s family acts as a protective factor. Preventive measures focused on young people should take a contextual approach and include those closest to them.